Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 4715 · SBA → SFO
departs 9:59 AM PT · arrives 11:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 36%
Wed 10/7 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.