Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3195 SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 1126 SDF 18:54 → ATL 20:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3195 Delta Flight history →	SDF 16:47	ATL 18:25	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2831 Delta Flight history →	SDF 19:57	ATL 21:35	15%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1126 Delta Flight history →	SDF 18:54	ATL 20:34	16%	4%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON