Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:47 am at Louisville); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 4753 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 14:16	DCA 15:59	15%	4%	0.2%	60%
MQ 4023 Envoy	SDF 18:13	DCA 19:57	18%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SDF 17:19 → ORD 18:06AA 4668 · flown by Republic	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 21:03 → DCA 00:14 +1AA 514	6h 55m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:31 → MSP 17:41DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	7h 25m	98%	76%
United Details →	SDF 14:10 → ORD 14:50UA 5603 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 17:17 → DCA 20:23UA 2761	6h 13m	97%	75%
United Details →	SDF 15:41 → IAH 17:10UA 6310 · flown by Mesa	2h 40m Houston	IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224	8h 18m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	7h 05m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	SDF 14:09 → LGA 16:30DL 5637 · flown by Republic	2h 45m New York	LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59DL 5724 · flown by Republic	6h 50m	99%	67%
American Details →	SDF 13:18 → DFW 14:40AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472	8h 13m	100%	67%
Southwest Details →	SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55WN 1712	2h 20m Nashville	BNA 20:15 → DCA 23:03WN 4843	4h 58m	99%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 17:55 → LGA 20:20DL 4852 · flown by Endeavor	1h 00m New York	LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58DL 1825	5h 03m	62%	38%
Delta Details →	SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor	49m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	5h 29m	48%	38%
American Details →	SDF 17:10 → BOS 19:36AA 3438 · flown by Envoy	46m Boston	BOS 20:22 → DCA 22:19AA 4047 · flown by Envoy	5h 09m	49%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON