Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3594 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 3594 SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest YX 3670 SDF 18:30 → EWR 20:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3594 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:30	EWR 08:38	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
YX 3569 Republic	SDF 11:20	EWR 13:52	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 3623 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 11:44	EWR 14:00	14%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 3694 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 13:08	EWR 15:31	15%	4%	0.8%	87%
UA 3452 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 13:23	EWR 15:43	15%	4%	0.8%	81%
YX 3670 Republic	SDF 18:30	EWR 20:50	22%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON