tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:17 am at Louisville); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6326 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record SDF 09:30 IAH 10:58 13% 7% 1.2% 87%
UA 6310 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record SDF 15:41 IAH 17:10 22% 12% 0.3% 78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SDF 10:22 → ORD 11:09UA 3520 · flown by Republic 1h 31m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 6h 18m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → SDF 10:36 → ORD 11:15AA 4704 · flown by Republic 2h 14m Chicago ORD 13:29 → IAH 16:25AA 4426 · flown by Republic 6h 49m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SDF 10:04 → ORD 10:40UA 5629 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Chicago ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451 8h 16m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SDF 17:50 → ORD 18:40UA 5929 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665 7h 44m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SDF 09:00 → ORD 09:38UA 3696 · flown by Republic 1h 10m Chicago ORD 10:48 → IAH 13:39UA 2767 5h 39m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → SDF 10:06 → IAD 12:07UA 3508 · flown by Republic 2h 50m Dulles IAD 14:57 → IAH 17:20UA 2607 8h 14m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SDF 08:00 → DEN 08:59UA 1506 2h 35m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 8h 09m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → SDF 14:10 → ORD 14:50UA 5603 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Chicago ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954 7h 40m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor 57m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 5h 59m 57% 46%
AmericanDetails → SDF 18:04 → CLT 19:35AA 3219 1h 10m Charlotte CLT 20:45 → IAH 22:27AA 1840 5h 23m 72% 46%
UnitedDetails → SDF 09:00 → ORD 09:38UA 3696 · flown by Republic 47m Chicago ORD 10:25 → IAH 13:23UA 2638 5h 23m 47% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON