Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:25 pm at Louisville); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1766 at 18:55, 39%.

Nonstops today


WN 1766 Southwest	SDF 18:55	MCO 21:01	39%	15%	1.0%	no record
WN 910 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 17:30	MCO 19:35	44%	14%	1.0%	44%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SDF 17:50 → ORD 18:40UA 5929 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 20:20 → MCO 00:06 +1UA 617	6h 16m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:32 → MSP 17:42DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309	7h 26m	93%	69%
Southwest Details →	SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55WN 1712	3h 08m Nashville	BNA 21:03 → MCO 00:02 +1WN 642	5h 57m	100%	65%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	7h 11m	100%	57%
American Details →	SDF 18:05 → CLT 19:36AA 3219	2h 53m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → MCO 00:17 +1AA 1879	6h 12m	92%	54%
Southwest Details →	SDF 17:05 → BWI 18:45WN 4209	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 19:45 → MCO 22:15WN 3416	5h 10m	89%	52%
United Details →	SDF 16:57 → IAH 18:07UA 6310 · flown by Mesa	1h 43m Houston	IAH 19:50 → MCO 23:22UA 2323	6h 25m	76%	50%
American Details →	SDF 18:01 → DFW 19:25AA 4152 · flown by Envoy	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336	6h 20m	82%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55WN 1712	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 18:55 → MCO 21:54WN 1088	3h 49m	67%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON