Today: DL 2768 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet today DL 2768 SEA 07:35 → ANC 10:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 584 SEA 09:42 → ANC 12:16 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:35	ANC 10:21	10%	2%	0.2%	94%
DL 2367 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:29	ANC 20:13	16%	3%	0.9%	79%
DL 931 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	ANC 20:08	16%	3%	0.9%	78%
AS 79 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:53	ANC 10:37	17%	2%	0.5%	90%
AS 582 Alaska	SEA 19:03	ANC 21:46	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1363 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:59	ANC 02:40	19%	3%	0.7%	87%
AS 1408 Alaska	SEA 18:03	ANC 20:46	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 225 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:59	ANC 19:38	20%	3%	0.7%	77%
AS 85 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:51	ANC 19:29	20%	3%	0.7%	88%
AS 661 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:46	ANC 21:25	22%	3%	0.7%	71%
DL 936 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	ANC 23:58	22%	3%	0.8%	73%
AS 1471 Alaska	SEA 22:01	ANC 00:45	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 703 Alaska	SEA 22:52	ANC 01:36	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 711 Alaska	SEA 20:55	ANC 23:39	23%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1336 Alaska	SEA 20:03	ANC 22:46	23%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 667 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:25	ANC 23:08	23%	3%	0.7%	71%
AS 1560 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:57	ANC 00:41	24%	3%	0.7%	73%
AS 767 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:52	ANC 20:34	24%	3%	0.7%	70%
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ANC 13:17	25%	3%	0.2%	80%
AS 1332 Alaska	SEA 08:29	ANC 11:03	25%	2%	0.4%	no record
AS 771 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:15	ANC 23:55	25%	3%	0.7%	67%
DL 928 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:40	ANC 16:25	26%	4%	0.2%	73%
AS 99 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:58	ANC 18:37	27%	4%	0.4%	78%
AS 1381 Alaska	SEA 13:06	ANC 15:44	28%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 83 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:39	ANC 14:27	30%	4%	0.4%	72%
AS 1333 Alaska	SEA 11:50	ANC 14:28	31%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 433 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:59	ANC 13:41	31%	3%	0.5%	80%worse than usual
AS 1810 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:14	ANC 13:00	31%	3%	0.4%	70%
AS 659 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	ANC 16:20	33%	5%	0.5%	64%
AS 584 Alaska	SEA 09:42	ANC 12:16	35%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON