Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 1388 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 1388 SEA 06:18 → BUR 08:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 1395 SEA 10:12 → BUR 12:52 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1388 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:18	BUR 08:59	14%	4%	1.0%	87%
AS 1372 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:58	BUR 20:39	28%	6%	0.9%	74%
AS 331 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:10	BUR 17:45	30%	6%	0.9%	65%
AS 529 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:18	BUR 15:59	30%	5%	0.9%	73%
AS 1408 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:23	BUR 21:59	30%	6%	0.9%	41%
AS 426 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:43	BUR 12:23	30%	6%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
AS 1395 Alaska	SEA 10:12	BUR 12:52	36%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON