tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1404 Southwest Flight history → SEA 15:05 DAL 21:00 37% 10% 0.5% 16%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15WN 3001 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255 6h 50m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:27 → ATL 08:15DL 652 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 8h 57m 96% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 11:45 → MDW 18:00WN 3081 2h 40m Chicago MDW 20:40 → DAL 22:55WN 1005 9h 10m 96% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 06:45 → SJC 08:55WN 3626 2h 45m San Jose SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965 8h 20m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 06:15 → OAK 08:25WN 266 2h 35m Oakland OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014 8h 10m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 09:00 → STL 14:50WN 3632 2h 40m St Louis STL 17:30 → DAL 19:10WN 1417 8h 10m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 13:50 → AUS 20:05WN 4956 1h 50m Austin AUS 21:55 → DAL 23:05WN 280 7h 15m 94% 78%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615 1h 15m Denver DEN 10:05 → DAL 13:10WN 1518 5h 55m 91% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SEA 14:25 → SAN 17:20WN 4910 50m San Diego SAN 18:10 → DAL 23:15WN 3492 6h 50m 58% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON