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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 07:26, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3619 Southwest Flight history → SEA 11:05 HOU 17:25 35% 5% 0.5% 39%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SEA 09:00 → STL 14:50WN 3632 3h 35m St Louis STL 18:25 → HOU 20:37WN 4335 9h 37m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 07:35 → SMF 09:35WN 3630 1h 25m Sacramento SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782 7h 10m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810 3h 35m Chicago MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124 10h 05m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15WN 3001 1h 22m Phoenix PHX 10:37 → HOU 15:17WN 1049 6h 47m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 07:50 → DEN 11:25WN 3397 3h 05m Denver DEN 14:30 → HOU 17:56WN 4525 8h 06m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 12:20 → DEN 16:10WN 3616 2h 30m Denver DEN 18:40 → HOU 22:15WN 606 7h 55m 98% 74%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 11:45 → MDW 18:00WN 3081 3h 30m Chicago MDW 21:30 → HOU 00:12 +1WN 4058 10h 27m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 8h 22m 92% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SEA 15:05 → DAL 21:00WN 1404 1h 00m Dallas DAL 22:00 → HOU 23:15WN 63 6h 10m 65% 48%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:44 → DFW 06:43AA 2429 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:33 → HOU 08:51AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 6h 07m 54% 46%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 11:10 → PHX 14:05WN 3623 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 15:05 → HOU 19:43WN 1874 6h 33m 59% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON