Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: AS 3422 at 20:13, 31%.

Safest bet today AS 3422 SEA 20:13 → IDA 23:08 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AS 3490 SEA 12:45 → IDA 15:37 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3422 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:13	IDA 23:08	31%	10%	0.2%	72%
AS 3423 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:50	IDA 22:39	33%	9%	0.2%	79%worse than usual
AS 3026 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 12:34	IDA 15:29	43%	22%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
AS 3490 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 12:45	IDA 15:37	46%	22%	0.2%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON