Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4769 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4769 SEA 06:15 → LAS 08:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 212 SEA 10:42 → LAS 13:13 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4769 Southwest	SEA 06:15	LAS 08:45	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:25	LAS 10:01	13%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2955 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:25	LAS 19:00	15%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:34	LAS 23:10	16%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:05	LAS 13:42	17%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:50	LAS 12:25	18%	3%	0.7%	85%
WN 2175 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 07:30	LAS 10:05	18%	4%	0.6%	85%
AS 612 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:48	LAS 10:29	22%	4%	0.6%	88%
AS 704 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:15	LAS 22:55	25%	5%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 1456 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:19	LAS 18:54	28%	5%	0.6%	67%
WN 2267 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 17:35	LAS 20:15	31%	8%	0.5%	27%
AS 600 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:18	LAS 17:53	31%	5%	0.6%	77%
F9 2408 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 20:53	LAS 23:34	31%	14%	1.2%	68%
AS 738 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:31	LAS 14:16	33%	4%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
WN 3620 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 12:45	LAS 15:20	33%	6%	0.5%	65%
AS 728 Alaska	SEA 13:36	LAS 16:07	33%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2234 Southwest	SEA 14:05	LAS 16:37	36%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 212 Alaska	SEA 10:42	LAS 13:13	37%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON