Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 6053 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day OO 6053 SEA 06:31 → LAX 09:48 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 487 SEA 11:15 → LAX 14:01 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6053 SkyWest	SEA 06:31	LAX 09:48	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1692 United Flight history →	SEA 06:00	LAX 08:44	15%	4%	0.6%	81%
AS 505 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:03	LAX 08:47	15%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2914 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:35	LAX 15:23	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 1628 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	LAX 10:05	15%	5%	0.7%	93%
UA 1730 United Flight history →	SEA 17:04	LAX 19:53	16%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 6324 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:20	LAX 17:18	16%	6%	0.6%	72%
DL 2769 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:05	LAX 12:55	17%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 2854 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:25	LAX 23:15	18%	5%	0.6%	78%
AA 4896 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:00	LAX 10:02	18%	6%	0.7%	86%
DL 2830 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:10	LAX 17:51	19%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 2512 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:46	LAX 00:33	19%	5%	0.6%	70%
DL 2861 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	LAX 20:13	21%	5%	0.6%	76%
AS 524 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:10	LAX 21:00	24%	6%	0.6%	82%
AS 502 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:38	LAX 15:25	24%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 1300 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:59	LAX 18:44	26%	5%	0.6%	77%
AS 696 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	LAX 16:25	26%	5%	0.6%	82%
OO 6219 SkyWest	SEA 07:12	LAX 10:00	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 717 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:26	LAX 10:20	27%	6%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 1306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:17	LAX 11:03	27%	6%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
AS 492 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:10	LAX 19:55	28%	6%	0.6%	78%
AS 1390 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:18	LAX 00:05	30%	5%	0.6%	72%
F9 1178 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 10:34	LAX 13:34	31%	13%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
AS 487 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:15	LAX 14:01	35%	6%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON