Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 943 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 943 SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 527 SEA 13:38 → MSP 19:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 943 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:05	MSP 11:24	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 953 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:19	MSP 05:38	11%	3%	0.2%	91%
DL 949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:05	MSP 23:30	13%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 941 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:05	MSP 17:37	14%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 536 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:12	MSP 17:34	15%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 942 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	MSP 19:54	16%	3%	0.6%	80%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:35	MSP 13:57	18%	2%	0.6%	86%
AS 386 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:40	MSP 23:59	19%	3%	0.6%	82%
AS 509 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:51	MSP 17:19	22%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 527 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	MSP 19:00	24%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON