Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 266 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 266 SEA 06:15 → OAK 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 1328 SEA 11:41 → OAK 13:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 266 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 06:15	OAK 08:25	5%	2%	0.7%	100%
WN 3495 Southwest	SEA 06:55	OAK 09:05	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2396 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 16:55	OAK 19:10	22%	6%	0.6%	65%
WN 2890 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 20:25	OAK 22:40	22%	9%	0.6%	34%
AS 533 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:08	OAK 11:19	22%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
WN 1713 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 10:25	OAK 12:35	26%	6%	0.6%	50%
AS 706 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:25	OAK 19:33	28%	6%	0.7%	77%
AS 1328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:41	OAK 13:59	31%	6%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON