Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:54 am at Seattle)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	OMA 14:16	18%	3%	0.2%	87%
AS 556 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:47	OMA 23:59	22%	4%	0.5%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	5h 26m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810	2h 45m Chicago	MDW 14:10 → OMA 15:40WN 435	8h 10m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	96%	85%
American Details →	SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:12AA 2922	3h 53m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → OMA 17:55AA 4724 · flown by Republic	9h 55m	98%	85%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 28m Denver	DEN 10:11 → OMA 12:54UA 1633	5h 54m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615	1h 45m Denver	DEN 10:35 → OMA 13:12WN 1306	5h 57m	95%	83%
Southwest Details →	SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15WN 3001	2h 36m Phoenix	PHX 11:51 → OMA 16:32WN 456	8h 02m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	4h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:40 → OMA 23:58DL 3706 · flown by SkyWest	8h 28m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866	57m San Francisco	SFO 18:44 → OMA 00:13 +1UA 2839	6h 40m	67%	49%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:05 → MSP 17:37DL 941	48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47DL 4024 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	54%	42%
Southwest Details →	SEA 17:20 → PHX 20:15WN 3354	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 21:15 → OMA 01:55 +1WN 2007	6h 35m	58%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON