Today: AA 3792 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–42%.

Safest bet today AA 3792 SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3354 SEA 17:20 → PHX 20:15 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3792 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 06:16	PHX 09:18	9%	3%	0.2%	96%
MQ 3583 Envoy	SEA 06:16	PHX 09:17	10%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3001 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 06:30	PHX 09:15	10%	2%	0.2%	96%
MQ 3670 Envoy	SEA 12:00	PHX 14:58	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 3793 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 11:07	PHX 14:10	16%	4%	0.2%	80%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	PHX 11:20	17%	3%	0.2%	92%
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 18:21	PHX 21:21	19%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 4035 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 18:15	PHX 21:18	19%	5%	0.6%	73%
WN 4307 Southwest	SEA 08:05	PHX 11:03	20%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 2447 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:30	PHX 23:33	21%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 3440 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 15:20	PHX 18:21	21%	5%	0.1%	69%
AS 606 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:17	PHX 10:20	21%	4%	0.4%	88%
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	PHX 14:59	24%	6%	0.2%	79%
DL 2698 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:30	PHX 21:29	24%	5%	0.7%	77%
AS 632 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:55	PHX 22:53	25%	5%	0.6%	74%
AA 2783 American	SEA 15:17	PHX 18:14	26%	9%	0.2%	no record
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	PHX 16:41	26%	6%	0.2%	82%
AS 593 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:59	PHX 13:01	26%	4%	0.3%	73%
AS 449 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:39	PHX 12:33	26%	4%	0.3%	84%worse than usual
WN 3761 Southwest	SEA 11:10	PHX 14:07	28%	7%	0.2%	no record
AS 417 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:00	PHX 14:52	28%	5%	0.3%	78%
AS 644 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:50	PHX 23:49	28%	5%	0.6%	70%
AS 700 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:44	PHX 16:45	29%	7%	0.2%	81%
AS 1371 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:50	PHX 14:57	30%	6%	0.3%	67%
WN 3623 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 11:10	PHX 14:05	31%	7%	0.2%	35%
AS 478 Alaska	SEA 15:05	PHX 17:58	31%	8%	0.2%	no record
AS 744 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:55	PHX 19:53	34%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 3497 Southwest	SEA 18:50	PHX 21:46	35%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 868 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 19:10	PHX 22:05	35%	10%	0.5%	54%
WN 3354 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 17:20	PHX 20:15	42%	10%	0.5%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON