Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3768 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3768 SEA 05:30 → SMF 07:27 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3392 SEA 11:35 → SMF 13:34 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3768 Southwest	SEA 05:30	SMF 07:27	2%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3629 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 05:00	SMF 06:50	3%	1%	0.2%	98%
WN 3630 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 07:35	SMF 09:35	8%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 3881 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:47	SMF 10:50	13%	5%	0.6%	92%
DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:10	SMF 12:17	13%	6%	0.6%	91%
DL 4131 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:25	SMF 22:31	13%	5%	0.6%	91%
OO 164 SkyWest	SEA 09:00	SMF 11:01	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 677 Alaska	SEA 08:16	SMF 10:12	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:40	SMF 16:39	15%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 636 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 21:40	SMF 23:40	16%	8%	0.4%	52%
DL 4043 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:00	SMF 18:57	19%	5%	0.6%	89%
WN 3566 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 18:05	SMF 20:05	23%	7%	0.4%	61%
AS 1427 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:55	SMF 22:48	23%	3%	0.6%	73%
AS 681 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:16	SMF 16:11	24%	5%	0.6%	84%
AS 1380 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:01	SMF 12:01	25%	4%	0.6%	65%
AS 764 Alaska	SEA 15:59	SMF 17:54	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3770 Southwest	SEA 15:55	SMF 17:51	30%	6%	0.4%	no record
AS 1428 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:55	SMF 13:57	30%	4%	0.6%	71%
AS 772 Alaska	SEA 11:48	SMF 13:44	30%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3392 Southwest	SEA 11:35	SMF 13:34	31%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON