Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 699 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day AS 699 SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 1551 SEA 15:08 → SNA 17:56 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 699 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:40	SNA 09:26	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 631 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:10	SNA 22:01	16%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 3966 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:40	SNA 10:41	19%	7%	0.6%	73%
DL 3932 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:35	SNA 22:30	19%	5%	0.7%	89%
AS 759 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	SNA 11:15	20%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 952 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:06	SNA 13:10	21%	5%	0.7%	73%
AS 472 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:20	SNA 20:08	21%	4%	0.6%	87%
AS 374 Alaska	SEA 14:39	SNA 17:27	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3694 SkyWest	SEA 08:27	SNA 11:20	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1001 Delta	SEA 10:11	SNA 13:05	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2318 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:00	SNA 17:47	22%	6%	0.6%	81%
AS 1357 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:06	SNA 13:55	23%	4%	0.6%	85%
AS 773 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:49	SNA 16:41	23%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 3999 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 13:54	SNA 16:55	23%	6%	0.6%	75%
OO 3697 SkyWest	SEA 14:34	SNA 17:27	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1551 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:08	SNA 17:56	24%	4%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON