tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:42 pm at Seattle); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53% (calm day: 33%). Best bet: Southwest via Denver, leaving 14:35, 52% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 639 Alaska Flight history → SEA 21:18 TPA 05:48 53% 9% 0.7% 84%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077 9h 02m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 21:21 → TPA 06:02 +1UA 1702 11h 29m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 2h 21m Los Angeles LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 +1DL 910 9h 46m 93% 69%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 12:45 → LAS 15:20WN 3620 2h 25m Las Vegas LAS 17:45 → TPA 01:20 +1WN 4494 9h 35m 100% 65%
UnitedDetails → SEA 17:20 → SFO 19:37UA 2164 1h 36m San Francisco SFO 21:13 → TPA 05:38 +1UA 649 9h 18m 83% 61%
AmericanDetails → SEA 15:20 → PHX 18:21AA 3440 · flown by Envoy 3h 42m Phoenix PHX 22:03 → TPA 05:11 +1AA 3260 10h 51m 97% 61%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 14:35 → DEN 18:20WN 3617 1h 35m Denver DEN 19:55 → TPA 01:35 +1WN 2232 8h 00m 85% 52%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:10 → CLT 21:20AA 2529 1h 28m Charlotte CLT 22:48 → TPA 00:40 +1AA 1773 8h 30m 83% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 12:56 → MIA 21:55AA 654 1h 18m Miami MIA 23:13 → TPA 00:19 +1AA 1714 8h 23m 66% 49%
UnitedDetails → SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351 57m Denver DEN 17:39 → TPA 23:17UA 1961 7h 27m 65% 47%
DeltaDetails → SEA 19:50 → SLC 22:55DL 1239 55m Salt Lake City SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077 7h 11m 56% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON