tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:26 am at Seattle); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3225 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SEA 17:45 TUS 21:05 28% 7% 0.2% 88%worse than usual
AS 638 Alaska Flight history → SEA 18:59 TUS 22:01 37% 9% 0.4% 82%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120 3h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:30 → TUS 21:29DL 4054 · flown by SkyWest 7h 59m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:07 → PHX 14:10AA 3793 · flown by Envoy 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 17:05 → TUS 17:54AA 4126 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 93% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 17:20 → PHX 20:15WN 3354 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 22:35 → TUS 23:32WN 1439 6h 12m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 3h 10m San Francisco SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest 7h 53m 96% 66%
UnitedDetails → SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351 2h 28m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 7h 22m 96% 66%
AmericanDetails → SEA 15:20 → PHX 18:21AA 3440 · flown by Envoy 2h 28m Phoenix PHX 20:49 → TUS 21:47AA 6309 · flown by SkyWest 6h 27m 97% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 12:20 → DEN 16:10WN 3616 2h 00m Denver DEN 18:10 → TUS 19:20WN 1195 7h 00m 93% 64%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:29 → SFO 12:47UA 1482 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 16:35 → TUS 18:49UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest 8h 20m 97% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 15:20 → PHX 18:21AA 3440 · flown by Envoy 46m Phoenix PHX 19:07 → TUS 20:01AA 6370 · flown by SkyWest 4h 41m 63% 42%
UnitedDetails → SEA 14:33 → DEN 18:22UA 333 48m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 5h 39m 49% 34%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 12:20 → DEN 16:10WN 3616 50m Denver DEN 17:00 → TUS 18:07WN 2047 5h 47m 40% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON