Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 32 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1232 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–53%.

Safest bet that day AA 1232 FLL 06:01 → DFW 08:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1973 FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1232 American Flight history →	FLL 06:01	DFW 08:16	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 2558 American Flight history →	FLL 07:00	DFW 09:17	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 1220 American Flight history →	PBI 07:05	DFW 09:19	8%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 1712 American Flight history →	FLL 06:58	DFW 09:10	8%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1226 American Flight history →	MIA 05:25	DFW 07:40	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2575 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	DFW 09:19	11%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 1454 American Flight history →	MIA 07:08	DFW 09:19	13%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 323 American	MIA 08:00	DFW 10:12	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1227 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	DFW 11:12	15%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 1866 American Flight history →	FLL 11:43	DFW 13:55	17%	5%	0.7%	86%
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:50	DFW 09:07	18%	7%	0.9%	77%
AA 3081 American Flight history →	MIA 10:05	DFW 12:17	18%	5%	0.7%	77%
B6 979 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:29	DFW 10:38	18%	5%	0.7%	95%worse than usual
AA 3019 American Flight history →	MIA 12:18	DFW 14:39	19%	6%	0.7%	80%
AA 3055 American Flight history →	MIA 11:00	DFW 13:15	21%	6%	0.7%	74%
WN 4819 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DAL 14:50	23%	5%	0.6%	28%
AA 2762 American Flight history →	MIA 14:29	DFW 16:51	23%	8%	0.7%	68%
AA 2276 American Flight history →	PBI 14:14	DFW 16:28	25%	8%	0.8%	61%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	MIA 22:49	DFW 00:59	27%	8%	0.9%	55%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	FLL 15:04	DFW 17:22	28%	8%	0.7%	56%
AA 1199 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DFW 17:50	31%	10%	0.8%	57%
WN 1374 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 17:00	DAL 19:00	31%	8%	0.7%	54%
AA 2823 American Flight history →	MIA 16:39	DFW 19:04	31%	10%	0.8%	61%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	PBI 18:44	DFW 21:00	32%	9%	1.0%	51%
AA 2014 American Flight history →	FLL 16:26	DFW 18:39	33%	8%	0.8%	37%
B6 2182 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DFW 15:15	33%	10%	0.7%	64%
AA 1862 American Flight history →	FLL 17:29	DFW 19:49	33%	9%	0.8%	44%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	DFW 21:45	34%	9%	0.8%	58%
AA 3260 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	DFW 19:56	34%	10%	0.8%	59%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	FLL 19:11	DFW 21:23	37%	9%	0.8%	30%
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	DFW 23:16	40%	14%	0.8%	68%
F9 1973 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:50	DFW 21:06	53%	16%	1.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON