Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 36 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1232 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 1232 FLL 06:01 → DFW 08:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1973 FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1232 American Flight history →	FLL 06:01	DFW 08:16	6%	2%	2.3%	92%
AA 2558 American Flight history →	FLL 07:00	DFW 09:17	8%	3%	2.2%	92%
AA 1712 American Flight history →	FLL 06:52	DFW 09:00	9%	3%	2.1%	86%
AA 1220 American Flight history →	PBI 07:05	DFW 09:19	11%	3%	1.8%	90%
AA 1226 American Flight history →	MIA 05:25	DFW 07:40	11%	3%	2.1%	91%
AA 2575 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	DFW 09:19	13%	4%	2.2%	85%
AA 1454 American Flight history →	MIA 07:02	DFW 09:09	15%	4%	1.6%	88%
AA 1866 American Flight history →	FLL 11:43	DFW 13:55	15%	5%	2.1%	86%
AA 1429 American Flight history →	FLL 11:50	DFW 14:07	16%	6%	1.8%	76%
AA 1679 American Flight history →	MIA 08:31	DFW 10:49	17%	5%	1.2%	74%
AA 323 American	MIA 08:00	DFW 10:12	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
B6 979 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:29	DFW 10:38	18%	5%	0.7%	95%worse than usual
AA 3019 American Flight history →	MIA 12:18	DFW 14:39	18%	7%	1.2%	80%
AA 1227 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	DFW 11:12	18%	5%	1.6%	83%
WN 4819 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DAL 14:50	18%	4%	0.6%	28%
AA 1824 American Flight history →	MIA 09:40	DFW 11:57	20%	6%	1.2%	63%
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:50	DFW 09:07	20%	8%	0.9%	77%
AA 3081 American Flight history →	MIA 10:05	DFW 12:17	22%	6%	1.2%	77%
AA 3055 American Flight history →	MIA 11:00	DFW 13:15	22%	7%	1.2%	74%
AA 1788 American	MIA 12:15	DFW 14:22	22%	7%	1.6%	no record
AA 1863 American Flight history →	FLL 15:04	DFW 17:22	22%	6%	1.8%	56%
AA 2762 American Flight history →	MIA 14:29	DFW 16:51	24%	8%	1.2%	68%
AA 2276 American Flight history →	PBI 14:14	DFW 16:28	25%	9%	1.2%	61%
B6 2182 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DFW 15:15	25%	12%	0.7%	64%
WN 1374 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 17:00	DAL 19:00	26%	6%	0.6%	54%
AA 1199 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DFW 17:50	27%	8%	1.2%	57%
AA 1862 American Flight history →	FLL 17:29	DFW 19:49	27%	7%	1.3%	44%
AA 2014 American Flight history →	FLL 16:26	DFW 18:39	27%	6%	1.8%	37%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	MIA 22:49	DFW 00:59	28%	7%	1.2%	55%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	PBI 18:44	DFW 21:00	28%	9%	1.3%	51%
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	DFW 23:16	30%	12%	0.7%	68%
AA 2823 American Flight history →	MIA 16:39	DFW 19:04	31%	8%	1.2%	61%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	FLL 19:11	DFW 21:23	31%	7%	1.9%	30%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	DFW 21:45	33%	8%	1.2%	58%
AA 3260 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	DFW 19:56	33%	8%	1.2%	59%
F9 1973 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:50	DFW 21:06	50%	13%	0.8%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON