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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 98 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2165 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–60%.

Safest bet that day DL 2165 FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1172 FLL 18:35 → LGA 21:35 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time
Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 2165 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:06 JFK 10:00 4% 2% 0.7% 90%
UA 2158 United Flight history → PBI 06:00 EWR 08:54 5% 2% 1.2% 94%
UA 2603 United Flight history → FLL 06:55 EWR 09:59 5% 2% 0.7% 96%
UA 2330 United Flight history → FLL 07:55 EWR 10:59 6% 3% 0.7% 96%
B6 854 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 06:46 JFK 09:35 7% 3% 0.9% 90%
UA 2299 United FLL 06:55 EWR 09:48 7% 2% 0.7% no record
DL 2133 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:00 LGA 09:57 8% 2% 0.7% 94%
DL 2387 Delta Flight history → MIA 06:25 LGA 09:24 8% 2% 0.8% 87%
UA 1864 United Flight history → MIA 07:07 EWR 10:11 9% 3% 0.7% 93%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history → MIA 07:05 JFK 10:03 9% 2% 0.8% 88%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 07:01 JFK 10:00 9% 3% 0.7% 95%
AA 1040 American Flight history → MIA 06:00 JFK 09:05 9% 3% 1.0% 90%
DL 2532 Delta Flight history → PBI 07:20 LGA 10:10 9% 2% 0.9% 92%
AA 525 American Flight history → MIA 06:51 JFK 09:48 11% 3% 0.9% 92%
UA 408 United Flight history → MIA 08:48 EWR 11:54 11% 3% 0.7% 88%
B6 1072 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:10 LGA 09:03 11% 3% 0.9% 92%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:12 JFK 13:59 11% 4% 0.8% 72%
UA 2387 United Flight history → FLL 10:05 EWR 13:09 12% 5% 0.7% 83%
B6 306 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:30 EWR 09:27 12% 3% 1.2% 85%
B6 2144 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 07:45 EWR 10:31 12% 4% 1.2% 67%
AA 1051 American Flight history → MIA 08:22 JFK 11:30 12% 3% 0.9% 89%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:09 LGA 09:00 13% 3% 0.9% 83%
B6 1002 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 08:07 JFK 11:05 14% 5% 0.7% 72%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:29 JFK 18:48 14% 6% 0.7% 72%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history → MIA 08:15 LGA 11:16 14% 3% 0.8% 76%
UA 210 United Flight history → FLL 11:11 EWR 14:15 14% 8% 0.7% 90%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 JFK 23:05 15% 6% 0.8% 59%
AA 3205 American Flight history → MIA 06:56 LGA 09:59 15% 4% 2.3% 90%
AA 1801 American Flight history → MIA 08:38 EWR 11:40 16% 3% 0.8% 93%
UA 1197 United Flight history → PBI 10:42 EWR 13:38 16% 6% 0.8% 89%
DL 2623 Delta Flight history → PBI 11:59 JFK 14:54 16% 5% 0.8% 75%
AA 1822 American Flight history → MIA 08:25 EWR 11:30 16% 3% 0.9% 86%
AA 1052 American Flight history → MIA 09:55 JFK 13:04 17% 3% 0.9% 83%
DL 1520 Delta Flight history → MIA 11:25 JFK 14:31 17% 4% 0.8% 85%
B6 1062 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 08:00 LGA 10:46 17% 5% 0.9% 92%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 07:58 EWR 10:53 17% 5% 0.9% 65%
DL 1473 Delta MIA 11:28 JFK 14:18 19% 5% 0.8% no record
B6 1154 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 10:44 JFK 13:34 19% 6% 0.9% 72%
UA 1611 United Flight history → FLL 12:46 EWR 15:50 22% 10% 0.7% 78%
UA 2433 United Flight history → MIA 11:30 EWR 14:39 22% 6% 0.7% 94%worse than usual
UA 2080 United Flight history → MIA 11:12 EWR 14:23 22% 7% 0.7% 79%
AA 2061 American MIA 09:07 LGA 12:13 22% 5% 1.6% no record
AA 2062 American MIA 10:37 JFK 13:32 23% 6% 0.8% no record
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:17 JFK 18:50 24% 7% 0.8% 73%
DL 2526 Delta Flight history → PBI 10:44 LGA 13:33 24% 5% 0.8% 76%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:18 JFK 14:07 24% 13% 0.8% 64%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 22:15 JFK 01:18 25% 14% 0.8% 64%
AA 3256 American Flight history → MIA 09:56 LGA 12:59 25% 5% 1.6% 80%
UA 279 United Flight history → FLL 17:48 EWR 20:59 25% 11% 0.8% 69%
DL 1638 Delta Flight history → PBI 19:59 JFK 22:59 25% 9% 0.9% 56%
B6 602 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:57 JFK 14:54 25% 14% 0.8% 66%
AA 944 American Flight history → MIA 21:51 JFK 00:59 25% 5% 0.9% 64%
UA 1187 United Flight history → PBI 19:29 EWR 22:29 26% 12% 0.9% 68%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 09:40 LGA 12:33 26% 6% 0.9% 74%
DL 701 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 LGA 23:02 27% 6% 0.8% 35%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:05 LGA 18:19 28% 7% 0.8% 68%
B6 1054 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 14:08 JFK 17:06 28% 10% 0.9% 87%worse than usual
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:59 JFK 23:21 28% 7% 0.8% 53%
UA 1800 United Flight history → FLL 15:53 EWR 19:00 30% 15% 0.8% 61%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:29 LGA 14:24 30% 6% 0.8% 70%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:40 LGA 22:59 30% 7% 0.8% 57%
DL 2346 Delta Flight history → MIA 11:29 LGA 14:34 30% 6% 0.8% 70%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:29 LGA 18:45 31% 8% 0.9% 72%
UA 353 United Flight history → PBI 13:12 EWR 16:13 31% 10% 0.8% 74%
AA 642 American Flight history → MIA 14:00 JFK 17:18 31% 8% 0.8% 71%
UA 1395 United Flight history → PBI 17:15 EWR 20:15 33% 10% 0.8% 61%
AA 1823 American Flight history → MIA 13:31 EWR 16:39 33% 9% 1.0% 79%worse than usual
DL 2466 Delta Flight history → PBI 19:37 LGA 22:33 33% 9% 1.0% 50%
DL 1498 Delta MIA 11:36 LGA 14:29 33% 6% 0.8% no record
AA 1202 American Flight history → MIA 16:03 JFK 19:15 33% 8% 0.9% 55%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history → PBI 15:20 LGA 18:22 34% 10% 0.8% 64%
UA 2691 United Flight history → MIA 17:22 EWR 20:37 35% 10% 0.7% 56%
AA 2008 American Flight history → MIA 22:00 EWR 00:59 35% 7% 0.9% 62%
AA 2424 American MIA 10:14 LGA 13:09 35% 6% 2.1% no record
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 EWR 23:58 36% 16% 0.9% 51%
AA 1357 American Flight history → MIA 19:50 JFK 23:01 37% 8% 0.8% 56%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history → PBI 15:18 LGA 18:19 37% 9% 0.9% 69%
AA 322 American Flight history → MIA 19:48 EWR 22:53 38% 10% 0.9% 46%
AA 1922 American Flight history → MIA 18:33 JFK 21:45 39% 9% 0.8% 61%
B6 1802 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:35 JFK 21:39 41% 17% 0.8% 61%
AA 2490 American Flight history → FLL 12:04 LGA 15:04 41% 9% 1.8% 68%
AA 2720 American FLL 12:06 LGA 15:14 41% 9% 2.1% no record
AA 1389 American Flight history → MIA 20:40 LGA 23:44 44% 9% 1.3% 58%
AA 2054 American Flight history → MIA 19:00 LGA 22:05 44% 10% 1.6% 42%
B6 144 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 18:08 EWR 21:00 45% 15% 1.2% 74%worse than usual
AA 3229 American Flight history → MIA 12:51 LGA 16:00 46% 11% 1.6% 47%
AA 2945 American Flight history → MIA 15:22 LGA 18:29 46% 11% 1.6% 48%
AA 952 American Flight history → MIA 16:25 LGA 19:29 46% 13% 1.6% 53%
AA 2808 American Flight history → FLL 17:49 LGA 20:49 46% 10% 1.8% 33%
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:52 LGA 14:45 46% 15% 0.9% 58%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:40 EWR 21:43 46% 22% 1.0% 57%
AA 2484 American MIA 12:39 LGA 15:43 46% 10% 1.6% no record
AA 3128 American Flight history → MIA 17:50 LGA 20:58 46% 11% 1.6% 38%
AA 716 American Flight history → MIA 14:22 LGA 17:29 50% 12% 1.6% 54%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:15 LGA 23:14 50% 16% 0.8% 55%
B6 1962 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 18:27 LGA 21:15 51% 18% 1.0% 64%worse than usual
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 16:51 LGA 19:50 54% 16% 0.9% 74%worse than usual
B6 1172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:35 LGA 21:35 60% 21% 0.8% 54%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON