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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 52 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3189 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 3189 PBI 07:25 → BWI 09:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2594 FLL 18:55 → BWI 21:23 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 3189 Southwest Flight history → PBI 07:25 BWI 09:50 3% 2% 0.7% 93%
WN 3136 Southwest FLL 06:04 BWI 08:49 4% 1% 0.7% no record
UA 2169 United Flight history → FLL 08:40 IAD 11:14 5% 3% 0.6% 90%
WN 974 Southwest Flight history → MIA 06:20 BWI 08:55 5% 2% 0.7% 91%
WN 396 Southwest Flight history → FLL 06:25 BWI 08:55 5% 1% 0.7% 98%
WN 4703 Southwest MIA 06:25 BWI 09:10 6% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 1651 Southwest Flight history → FLL 08:00 BWI 10:30 6% 2% 0.6% 83%
UA 1421 United Flight history → FLL 12:13 IAD 14:49 7% 3% 0.6% 89%
WN 1910 Southwest FLL 09:04 BWI 11:48 8% 2% 0.7% no record
AA 491 American Flight history → MIA 06:00 DCA 08:41 8% 3% 1.6% 93%
AA 4431 American flown by Republic Flight history → PBI 11:19 DCA 13:59 10% 5% 0.7% 75%
UA 2435 United Flight history → MIA 13:10 IAD 15:53 10% 4% 0.7% 88%
B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:30 DCA 09:04 11% 4% 0.7% 92%
WN 1072 Southwest Flight history → PBI 14:40 BWI 17:05 11% 4% 0.7% 88%
WN 1853 Southwest Flight history → FLL 10:45 BWI 13:15 11% 3% 0.6% 73%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history → MIA 11:22 DCA 14:05 13% 5% 0.6% 70%
AA 2848 American MIA 07:53 DCA 10:33 13% 5% 1.2% no record
WN 3191 Southwest Flight history → PBI 19:05 BWI 21:35 14% 7% 0.6% 63%
AA 1299 American Flight history → MIA 08:02 DCA 10:38 15% 5% 1.3% 91%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history → FLL 14:15 BWI 16:45 16% 4% 0.6% 57%
AA 1612 American Flight history → MIA 09:44 DCA 12:24 16% 6% 1.2% 85%
AA 2915 American Flight history → MIA 09:59 DCA 12:37 16% 6% 1.2% 80%
AA 1606 American Flight history → MIA 11:59 DCA 14:44 16% 6% 1.3% 87%
AA 1893 American Flight history → FLL 11:25 DCA 14:11 16% 6% 1.6% 86%
WN 2535 Southwest Flight history → FLL 11:40 DCA 14:20 18% 5% 0.6% 78%
WN 4670 Southwest Flight history → FLL 16:45 BWI 19:20 18% 5% 0.6% 56%
AA 1595 American MIA 12:09 DCA 14:49 18% 9% 1.2% no record
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history → MIA 07:26 BWI 10:20 19% 7% 1.0% 71%
WN 2924 Southwest Flight history → MIA 15:05 BWI 17:45 20% 5% 0.6% 58%
B6 2334 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 10:41 DCA 13:05 20% 10% 0.7% 70%
AA 3310 American Flight history → MIA 13:42 DCA 16:26 20% 8% 1.2% 70%
AA 3138 American Flight history → MIA 15:30 DCA 18:13 20% 8% 1.2% 62%
AA 1873 American Flight history → FLL 11:41 DCA 14:14 20% 7% 1.6% 66%
WN 999 Southwest Flight history → FLL 17:50 BWI 20:20 22% 5% 0.6% 15%
F9 4412 Frontier Flight history → FLL 09:28 BWI 12:10 23% 7% 0.8% 62%
AA 2897 American Flight history → MIA 20:30 DCA 23:09 23% 8% 1.3% 74%
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history → FLL 10:26 BWI 13:19 24% 8% 0.8% 72%
AA 708 American Flight history → MIA 22:10 DCA 00:49 24% 6% 1.2% 76%
AA 2281 American Flight history → PBI 15:25 DCA 17:58 24% 10% 1.2% 58%
WN 1624 Southwest Flight history → MIA 18:50 BWI 21:30 25% 6% 0.6% 40%
AA 3216 American Flight history → MIA 21:12 BWI 23:52 26% 6% 1.2% 57%
B6 1680 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:42 DCA 14:15 26% 14% 0.7% 69%
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 DCA 23:33 26% 18% 0.7% 57%
AA 1634 American Flight history → MIA 15:44 BWI 18:26 26% 6% 1.2% 66%
AA 2648 American Flight history → MIA 19:05 DCA 21:48 26% 9% 1.3% 63%
AA 667 American Flight history → MIA 18:25 DCA 20:59 27% 9% 1.2% 51%
B6 24 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 14:32 DCA 16:59 28% 16% 0.7% 58%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 12:30 BWI 14:58 33% 11% 0.8% 52%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history → FLL 17:00 IAD 19:38 36% 13% 1.0% 54%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:47 DCA 21:25 37% 21% 0.7% 61%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:59 BWI 23:27 39% 17% 0.7% 36%
B6 2594 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:55 BWI 21:23 42% 19% 0.8% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON