Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:03 pm at San Francisco)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56% (calm day: 32%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 20:28, 42% on time.

Nonstops today


UA 1594 United Flight history →	SFO 18:47	ANC 22:46	28%	4%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
AS 212 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 19:47	ANC 23:41	37%	7%	0.5%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	10h 32m	80%	63%
Alaska Details →	SFO 16:30 → LAX 18:06AS 1523	1h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 19:31 → ANC 23:55AS 1899	8h 25m	87%	59%
Alaska Details →	SFO 19:42 → HNL 22:11AS 843	1h 02m Honolulu	HNL 23:13 → ANC 07:07 +1AS 49	12h 25m	77%	59%
Southwest Details →	SFO 13:20 → LAS 15:00WN 3644	3h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 18:30 → ANC 22:45WN 1575	10h 25m	100%	58%
Delta Details →	SFO 13:30 → SEA 15:47DL 1412	1h 43m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:08DL 931	7h 38m	81%	47%
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:15 → SEA 17:15AS 630	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 20:56 → ANC 23:39AS 711	9h 24m	99%	43%
Alaska Details →	SFO 20:28 → SEA 22:41AS 591	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:40 +1AS 1363	7h 12m	78%	42%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:39 → SEA 19:39AS 1340	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 22:53 → ANC 01:36 +1AS 703	8h 57m	99%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:48 → SEA 15:47AS 656	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 16:52 → ANC 19:29AS 85	6h 41m	44%	16%
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:15 → SEA 17:15AS 630	49m Seattle	SEA 18:04 → ANC 20:46AS 1408	6h 31m	32%	10%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:39 → SEA 19:39AS 1340	46m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → ANC 23:08AS 667	6h 29m	3%	1%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON