Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 689 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 689 SFO 06:45 → BUR 08:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4228 SFO 18:50 → BUR 20:15 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 689 United	SFO 06:45	BUR 08:04	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1756 United Flight history →	SFO 07:19	BUR 08:51	7%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 2363 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	BUR 09:57	8%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1321 United Flight history →	SFO 17:54	BUR 19:20	18%	9%	0.6%	86%
UA 2115 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	BUR 11:49	18%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	SFO 20:20	BUR 21:47	19%	10%	0.6%	85%
UA 626 United Flight history →	SFO 13:50	BUR 15:17	21%	8%	0.6%	69%
WN 3635 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 10:20	BUR 11:40	22%	6%	1.3%	45%
UA 2764 United Flight history →	SFO 16:15	BUR 17:42	22%	9%	0.6%	56%
WN 3638 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 15:00	BUR 16:20	26%	9%	1.3%	39%
WN 4228 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 18:50	BUR 20:15	34%	13%	1.3%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON