Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1198 at 05:29 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1198 SFO 05:29 → DFW 11:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2325 SFO 15:38 → DFW 21:25 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1198 American Flight history →	SFO 05:29	DFW 11:15	5%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 2116 American	SFO 05:45	DFW 11:25	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 2305 American Flight history →	SFO 06:45	DFW 12:29	8%	3%	0.9%	83%
AA 2904 American Flight history →	SFO 08:00	DFW 13:40	11%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 1866 United	SFO 00:07	DFW 05:32	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3281 American Flight history →	SFO 00:26	DFW 06:05	11%	3%	0.9%	51%
AA 2111 American Flight history →	SFO 00:26	DFW 05:56	11%	3%	0.9%	88%
UA 1062 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	DFW 14:25	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 304 American Flight history →	SFO 08:02	DFW 13:33	13%	3%	0.9%	93%
UA 2478 United Flight history →	SFO 18:50	DFW 00:37	16%	6%	0.5%	60%
AA 2228 American Flight history →	SFO 23:20	DFW 04:59	19%	6%	0.9%	27%
F9 4000 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 00:29	DFW 06:10	20%	6%	1.8%	61%
AA 1711 American Flight history →	SFO 17:01	DFW 22:47	22%	9%	0.9%	51%
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	DFW 16:08	22%	6%	0.6%	61%
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	22%	6%	0.8%	45%
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SFO 12:30	DFW 18:26	23%	7%	0.8%	73%
F9 2930 Frontier	SFO 00:12	DFW 05:41	24%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	26%	8%	0.9%	50%
AA 2325 American Flight history →	SFO 15:38	DFW 21:25	27%	9%	0.9%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON