Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1947 at 00:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1947 SFO 00:05 → MCO 08:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1939 SFO 12:42 → MCO 21:14 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1947 United Flight history →	SFO 00:05	MCO 08:05	10%	3%	0.4%	93%
UA 2071 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	MCO 15:39	13%	6%	1.3%	90%
UA 583 United Flight history →	SFO 08:47	MCO 17:19	21%	7%	1.6%	90%worse than usual
AS 368 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:21	MCO 16:29	25%	8%	1.2%	87%worse than usual
UA 1939 United	SFO 12:42	MCO 21:14	28%	12%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032	7h 23m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	7h 36m	89%	73%
American Details →	SFO 00:24 → DFW 05:54AA 2111	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:05 → MCO 10:49AA 2119	7h 25m	85%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON