tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2614 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2614 SFO 06:02 → ORD 12:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2317 SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time
Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 2614 American Flight history → SFO 06:02 ORD 12:29 8% 2% 1.3% 92%
UA 2091 United Flight history → SFO 06:05 ORD 12:41 8% 1% 0.6% 93%
UA 2847 United SFO 00:41 ORD 06:57 10% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 2343 United SFO 04:56 ORD 11:04 11% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1568 United Flight history → SFO 08:15 ORD 14:50 11% 3% 0.6% 85%
UA 1850 United Flight history → SFO 00:50 ORD 07:16 12% 2% 0.6% 86%
UA 368 United Flight history → SFO 23:30 ORD 05:57 14% 3% 0.6% 86%
AA 359 American Flight history → SFO 08:00 ORD 14:27 15% 3% 1.2% 79%
AA 2814 American SFO 09:14 ORD 15:35 16% 4% 1.2% no record
UA 2278 United Flight history → SFO 22:38 ORD 05:01 17% 5% 0.6% 81%
UA 1375 United Flight history → SFO 18:34 ORD 00:59 18% 5% 0.6% 58%
UA 1482 United Flight history → SFO 16:21 ORD 22:59 20% 6% 0.6% 81%
AA 2554 American Flight history → SFO 23:07 ORD 05:20 20% 3% 1.2% 73%
AA 2543 American Flight history → SFO 10:17 ORD 16:46 22% 5% 1.2% 71%
UA 2480 United Flight history → SFO 15:10 ORD 21:38 23% 5% 0.6% 53%
AA 2537 American Flight history → SFO 16:20 ORD 23:00 23% 6% 1.2% 69%
UA 2827 United SFO 10:22 ORD 16:36 24% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 2550 American Flight history → SFO 14:36 ORD 21:27 24% 6% 1.2% 37%
UA 1777 United Flight history → SFO 14:29 ORD 21:03 24% 6% 0.6% 46%
UA 2317 United Flight history → SFO 12:00 ORD 18:35 28% 6% 0.6% 50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 51m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:30DL 1544 5h 55m 91% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:20 → SLC 16:14DL 849 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 6h 09m 83% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON