Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2161 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2161 SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1845 SFO 09:55 → PHL 18:27 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2161 American Flight history →	SFO 06:00	PHL 14:35	9%	2%	1.3%	93%
AA 2663 American Flight history →	SFO 00:08	PHL 08:28	10%	4%	0.3%	94%
AA 2964 American	SFO 06:12	PHL 14:41	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 2854 United Flight history →	SFO 23:20	PHL 07:50	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 2695 American Flight history →	SFO 00:48	PHL 09:20	12%	4%	0.3%	73%
UA 2824 United	SFO 08:55	PHL 17:32	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2619 United Flight history →	SFO 16:42	PHL 01:23	18%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 2045 American Flight history →	SFO 21:10	PHL 05:43	19%	5%	1.8%	77%
AA 2722 American Flight history →	SFO 07:48	PHL 16:20	20%	5%	1.2%	71%
AA 2941 American Flight history →	SFO 08:18	PHL 16:49	20%	5%	1.2%	75%
UA 1298 United	SFO 12:40	PHL 21:03	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 1845 American	SFO 09:55	PHL 18:27	23%	6%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 09m	92%	87%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	1h 51m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	8h 03m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:50 → MDW 12:00WN 1779	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 13:30 → PHL 16:39WN 2953	7h 49m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON