tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3785 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 3785 SFO 06:25 → SAN 08:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4306 SFO 22:23 → SAN 00:04 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time
Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
WN 3785 Southwest SFO 06:25 SAN 08:02 6% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 1057 Southwest Flight history → SFO 07:00 SAN 08:35 7% 1% 0.7% 75%
UA 1980 United Flight history → SFO 06:38 SAN 08:22 8% 2% 0.6% 97%
AS 3455 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 06:00 SAN 07:44 11% 4% 0.7% 69%
UA 444 United Flight history → SFO 08:15 SAN 09:59 11% 4% 0.6% 81%
WN 3236 Southwest SFO 08:40 SAN 10:17 11% 4% 0.8% no record
AS 501 Alaska SFO 07:00 SAN 08:41 12% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 4239 Southwest Flight history → SFO 08:55 SAN 10:35 12% 3% 0.7% 70%
AS 1557 Alaska Flight history → SFO 07:55 SAN 09:35 16% 2% 0.8% 73%
AS 769 Alaska SFO 08:17 SAN 09:58 16% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 1343 United Flight history → SFO 19:00 SAN 20:53 20% 6% 0.6% 65%
UA 2142 United Flight history → SFO 22:42 SAN 00:31 20% 9% 0.6% 73%
UA 2177 United Flight history → SFO 10:05 SAN 11:51 21% 7% 0.6% 68%
UA 1147 United Flight history → SFO 14:20 SAN 16:07 22% 7% 0.6% 45%
UA 1863 United Flight history → SFO 21:00 SAN 22:49 22% 8% 0.6% 79%
UA 1257 United Flight history → SFO 12:21 SAN 14:08 23% 9% 0.6% 67%
AS 3479 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 11:52 SAN 13:39 24% 11% 0.7% 58%
UA 1561 United Flight history → SFO 16:47 SAN 18:39 24% 7% 0.6% 59%
WN 3496 Southwest Flight history → SFO 11:00 SAN 12:40 25% 6% 0.7% 8%
AS 3426 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:32 SAN 12:19 27% 13% 0.7% 9%
WN 3525 Southwest Flight history → SFO 12:30 SAN 14:10 28% 9% 0.7% 45%
AS 3337 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:31 SAN 18:21 30% 13% 0.8% 59%
WN 4242 Southwest Flight history → SFO 14:00 SAN 15:40 31% 8% 0.7% 0%
AS 3482 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:21 SAN 15:05 33% 14% 0.7% 59%
WN 3653 Southwest Flight history → SFO 19:35 SAN 21:15 33% 8% 0.7% 23%
WN 3652 Southwest Flight history → SFO 16:00 SAN 17:40 38% 8% 0.7% 10%
WN 4681 Southwest Flight history → SFO 18:10 SAN 19:45 39% 9% 0.7% 9%
F9 4306 Frontier Flight history → SFO 22:23 SAN 00:04 44% 16% 3.2% 51%
AS 2058 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SFO 18:42 SAN 20:21 68% 24% 4.8% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON