Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1331 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1331 SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3394 SFO 17:11 → SLC 20:06 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1331 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:50	SLC 08:40	4%	2%	0.3%	96%
UA 5605 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:40	SLC 11:49	11%	5%	0.7%	95%
OO 5908 SkyWest	SFO 09:35	SLC 12:37	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:55	SLC 12:44	15%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 5753 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:54	SLC 23:59	19%	9%	0.7%	66%
DL 670 Delta	SFO 19:24	SLC 22:16	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:07	SLC 20:00	23%	6%	0.6%	71%
DL 2652 Delta Flight history →	SFO 19:24	SLC 22:14	23%	8%	0.6%	69%
UA 520 United	SFO 14:09	SLC 17:12	25%	8%	0.4%	no record
UA 1552 United	SFO 18:34	SLC 21:35	26%	10%	0.4%	no record
DL 849 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:20	SLC 16:14	26%	6%	0.6%	50%
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:26	SLC 16:16	26%	6%	0.6%	71%
UA 2017 United Flight history →	SFO 13:56	SLC 16:55	30%	8%	0.4%	67%
UA 543 United Flight history →	SFO 16:11	SLC 19:11	33%	9%	0.4%	52%
F9 3394 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 17:11	SLC 20:06	33%	11%	1.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON