Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 3244 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–33%.

Safest bet that day AS 3244 SFO 06:35 → SNA 08:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3582 SFO 17:26 → SNA 19:08 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3244 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 06:35	SNA 08:15	9%	4%	0.7%	93%
AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 06:56	SNA 08:36	9%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 5236 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 07:15	SNA 09:02	10%	5%	0.7%	86%
OO 5405 SkyWest	SFO 07:27	SNA 09:20	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 589 United Flight history →	SFO 19:10	SNA 20:55	11%	6%	0.6%	89%
OO 5763 SkyWest	SFO 08:47	SNA 10:39	12%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:12	SNA 09:52	13%	6%	0.7%	79%
UA 643 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	SNA 12:06	17%	8%	0.6%	82%
UA 571 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	SNA 13:45	20%	8%	0.6%	70%
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:39	SNA 15:31	22%	10%	0.7%	80%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:48	SNA 17:26	23%	8%	0.7%	85%
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:08	SNA 19:47	25%	9%	0.8%	71%
UA 5650 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:30	SNA 18:22	27%	10%	0.7%	72%
AS 3237 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:30	SNA 14:09	28%	10%	0.7%	12%
AS 560 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:37	SNA 12:16	31%	8%	0.6%	40%
F9 3582 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 17:26	SNA 19:08	33%	12%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON