Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 5986 at 18:55, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5986 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:55	SUN 21:51	25%	6%	0.7%	77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → SUN 12:25DL 3973 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	98%	90%
United Details →	SFO 07:03 → LAX 08:42UA 1260	2h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 11:37 → SUN 15:01UA 5379 · flown by SkyWest	6h 58m	99%	85%
United Details →	SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127	2h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 10:02 → SUN 13:16UA 5980 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	99%	84%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	3h 09m Denver	DEN 11:44 → SUN 13:47UA 5554 · flown by SkyWest	7h 47m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m	80%	73%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 43m	95%	67%
Alaska Details →	SFO 11:01 → SEA 13:02AS 580	3h 23m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	7h 00m	99%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON