Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:01 am at Springfield)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G4 104 Allegiant	SGF 21:49	LAS 22:59	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
G4 85 Allegiant Flight history →	SGF 13:21	LAS 14:27	16%	6%	0.6%	94%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Springfield). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SGF 11:25 → DEN 12:40UA 5903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Denver	DEN 16:08 → LAS 17:18UA 2424	7h 53m	100%	80%
United Details →	SGF 09:03 → DEN 10:20UA 5898 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Denver	DEN 13:34 → LAS 14:45UA 493	7h 42m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SGF 15:30 → ATL 18:26DL 4854 · flown by Endeavor	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → LAS 22:35DL 825	9h 05m	98%	77%
United Details →	SGF 17:01 → DEN 18:25UA 5404 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Denver	DEN 21:03 → LAS 22:11UA 624	7h 10m	96%	74%
United Details →	SGF 11:19 → ORD 13:12UA 4525 · flown by GoJet	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875	8h 38m	89%	71%
United Details →	SGF 13:33 → DEN 14:48UA 5541 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Denver	DEN 17:46 → LAS 18:50UA 2338	7h 17m	97%	71%
American Details →	SGF 10:35 → ORD 12:23AA 3800 · flown by Envoy	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 13:57 → LAS 16:13AA 1475	7h 38m	89%	69%
American Details →	SGF 13:23 → CLT 16:44AA 4060 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Charlotte	CLT 18:30 → LAS 20:17AA 596	8h 54m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SGF 11:25 → DEN 12:40UA 5903 · flown by SkyWest	54m Denver	DEN 13:34 → LAS 14:45UA 493	5h 20m	66%	53%
United Details →	SGF 15:05 → IAH 17:10UA 4840 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 29m Houston	IAH 18:39 → LAS 19:57UA 2406	6h 52m	71%	52%
American Details →	SGF 18:34 → DFW 20:15AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:08 → LAS 22:00AA 2371	5h 26m	67%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON