Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:09 pm at Shreveport); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5837 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 15:35	IAH 16:50	17%	8%	0.4%	70%
UA 5959 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 17:56	IAH 19:10	18%	8%	0.6%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SHV 16:27 → DEN 17:57UA 5260 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	7h 32m	93%	68%
American Details →	SHV 14:33 → DFW 15:52AA 5649 · flown by PSA	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:50 → IAH 19:11AA 4923 · flown by SkyWest	4h 38m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	SHV 17:16 → ATL 20:13DL 4111 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	6h 41m	92%	64%
American Details →	SHV 14:36 → DFW 15:58AA 4130 · flown by Envoy	2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	5h 18m	98%	59%
American Details →	SHV 20:16 → DFW 21:39AA 4128 · flown by Envoy	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:53 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023	3h 53m	92%	58%
American Details →	SHV 17:13 → DFW 18:34AA 6337 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209	5h 11m	89%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SHV 14:33 → DFW 15:52AA 5649 · flown by PSA	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:51 → IAH 18:08AA 1929	3h 35m	71%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON