tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 10:20, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3657 Southwest Flight history → SJC 08:50 BNA 15:05 15% 2% 0.5% 84%
WN 1936 Southwest SJC 13:05 BNA 19:22 23% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 9h 15m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:15 → LGB 07:35WN 4933 2h 27m Long Beach LGB 10:02 → BNA 15:54WN 3821 7h 39m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 7h 16m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:35 → ONT 07:55WN 4879 2h 10m Ontario ONT 10:05 → BNA 15:54WN 4996 7h 19m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 09:00 → RNO 10:05WN 4133 2h 45m Reno RNO 12:50 → BNA 18:56WN 554 7h 56m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654 3h 49m Los Angeles LAX 12:15 → BNA 18:24DL 449 9h 24m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 8h 35m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 17:45 → SAN 19:10WN 3526 3h 30m San Diego SAN 22:40 → BNA 04:45 +1WN 3480 9h 00m 94% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SJC 13:10 → IAH 19:05UA 2078 57m Houston IAH 20:02 → BNA 22:21UA 750 7h 11m 55% 40%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:47 → DFW 17:30AA 2572 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076 6h 30m 61% 38%
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:23 → DFW 20:04AA 436 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:52 → BNA 22:48AA 3230 6h 25m 49% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON