tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 621 Southwest Flight history → SJC 21:40 BWI 05:45 19% 5% 0.6% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 8h 55m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 16:40 → ONT 18:00WN 3691 3h 40m Ontario ONT 21:40 → BWI 05:30 +1WN 3143 9h 50m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451 1h 36m Chicago ORD 14:30 → BWI 17:36UA 2124 8h 06m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 17:05 → DEN 20:30WN 4246 3h 20m Denver DEN 23:50 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 1501 9h 10m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590 8h 59m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 09:20 → HOU 15:10WN 3673 3h 05m Houston HOU 18:15 → BWI 22:25WN 4669 10h 05m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:27 → BWI 18:23DL 2928 8h 48m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:25 → PHX 08:20WN 3186 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → BWI 16:55WN 1039 7h 30m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SJC 09:00 → SAN 10:25WN 3507 50m San Diego SAN 11:15 → BWI 19:20WN 3390 7h 20m 73% 57%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 19:00 → SAN 20:25WN 4513 1h 15m San Diego SAN 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3486 7h 35m 72% 57%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 11:50 → SAN 13:15WN 3698 55m San Diego SAN 14:10 → BWI 22:10WN 4148 7h 20m 70% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON