Today: WN 3802 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet today WN 3802 SJC 06:05 → DEN 09:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3667 SJC 13:10 → DEN 16:35 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3802 Southwest	SJC 06:05	DEN 09:38	6%	1%	0.1%	no record
UA 2013 United	SJC 08:43	DEN 12:35	11%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 586 United Flight history →	SJC 08:45	DEN 12:23	12%	4%	0.2%	97%
WN 1879 Southwest	SJC 09:16	DEN 12:50	13%	3%	0.1%	no record
UA 1035 United Flight history →	SJC 18:37	DEN 22:16	16%	5%	0.5%	80%
UA 2076 United	SJC 12:57	DEN 16:52	16%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 3806 Southwest	SJC 19:40	DEN 23:13	19%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4247 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:40	DEN 23:10	21%	4%	0.5%	76%
WN 3804 Southwest	SJC 12:26	DEN 15:59	21%	5%	0.1%	no record
UA 719 United Flight history →	SJC 14:32	DEN 18:10	22%	6%	0.5%	63%
WN 3666 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:25	DEN 13:50	22%	4%	0.1%	59%
WN 3805 Southwest	SJC 14:31	DEN 18:04	23%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4246 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:05	DEN 20:30	27%	5%	0.5%	47%
WN 3668 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:35	DEN 18:00	28%	4%	0.4%	27%
WN 3667 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:10	DEN 16:35	38%	8%	0.1%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON