Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1019 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1019 SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 436 SJC 14:23 → DFW 20:04 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1019 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	DFW 11:46	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2572 American Flight history →	SJC 11:47	DFW 17:30	24%	7%	0.7%	75%
AA 436 American Flight history →	SJC 14:23	DFW 20:04	29%	9%	0.7%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	5h 30m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 16:30 → LAX 17:56DL 3822 · flown by SkyWest	57m Los Angeles	LAX 18:53 → DFW 23:59DL 420	5h 29m	89%	71%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:33 → LAX 12:55DL 2965	55m Los Angeles	LAX 13:50 → DFW 19:04DL 948	5h 31m	90%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON