Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3632 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3632 SJC 06:00 → SEA 08:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 481 SJC 18:45 → SEA 21:00 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3632 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:00	SEA 08:20	9%	1%	0.2%	100%
WN 3786 Southwest	SJC 06:05	SEA 08:11	14%	1%	0.2%	no record
AS 1314 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 06:17	SEA 08:34	15%	3%	1.3%	87%
DL 4041 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 07:20	SEA 09:42	17%	3%	0.4%	95%worse than usual
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:35	SEA 13:55	18%	6%	0.6%	92%
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:59	SEA 23:23	18%	8%	0.6%	88%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:55	SEA 17:09	19%	7%	0.6%	85%
WN 3705 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:55	SEA 00:10	22%	6%	0.6%	64%
WN 1594 Southwest	SJC 13:05	SEA 15:13	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 1311 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 10:19	SEA 12:30	23%	3%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
AS 659 Alaska	SJC 13:25	SEA 15:31	23%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1436 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 21:38	SEA 23:47	24%	5%	0.7%	69%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:55	SEA 20:13	25%	9%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
AS 521 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 16:47	SEA 18:54	28%	5%	0.7%	73%
WN 4982 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:10	SEA 16:20	30%	5%	0.5%	76%
AS 1304 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 07:53	SEA 09:59	31%	4%	1.3%	79%worse than usual
AS 1413 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 17:28	SEA 19:39	33%	5%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AS 1426 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 08:20	SEA 10:31	35%	4%	1.2%	41%
AS 481 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 18:45	SEA 21:00	35%	6%	0.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON