Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:57 am at San Juan)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1368 United Flight history →	SJU 13:40	DEN 18:15	21%	4%	2.4%	87%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 07:40 → ORD 11:53UA 2089	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → DEN 15:17UA 2802	9h 37m	99%	84%
United Details →	SJU 07:20 → IAD 11:21UA 2022	3h 14m Dulles	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	11h 09m	100%	83%
United Details →	SJU 15:56 → ORD 20:15UA 2088	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 22:15 → DEN 00:07 +1UA 767	10h 11m	98%	82%
United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495	9h 35m	95%	82%
United Details →	SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668	3h 19m Houston	IAH 22:10 → DEN 23:57UA 1066	11h 02m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:58 → ATL 16:56DL 1930	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	9h 45m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	SJU 05:00 → MCO 08:00WN 3721	1h 32m Orlando	MCO 09:32 → DEN 11:25WN 2835	8h 25m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	SJU 05:30 → BWI 09:40WN 3717	1h 20m Baltimore	BWI 11:00 → DEN 12:57WN 994	9h 27m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882	49m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	8h 01m	63%	50%
Frontier Details →	SJU 15:10 → PHL 19:08F9 1165	1h 29m Philadelphia	PHL 20:37 → DEN 23:04F9 3339	9h 54m	65%	37%
Frontier Details →	SJU 12:21 → MCO 15:35F9 4725	1h 55m Orlando	MCO 17:30 → DEN 19:35F9 3311	9h 14m	74%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON