Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3731 at 21:55, 38%.

Safest bet today WN 3731 SJU 21:55 → TPA 00:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time Riskiest F9 2541 SJU 16:35 → TPA 19:50 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3731 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 21:55	TPA 00:55	38%	14%	1.3%	46%
B6 2752 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 20:55	TPA 23:59	45%	24%	1.2%	87%worse than usual
F9 2215 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 17:22	TPA 20:30	54%	24%	2.7%	74%worse than usual
F9 2541 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 16:35	TPA 19:50	55%	24%	3.0%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON