tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:33 am at Salt Lake City)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:00, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 820 Delta Flight history → SLC 10:29 DCA 16:35 17% 6% 0.1% 85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 7h 56m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → SLC 13:28 → ORD 18:02AA 2616 3h 01m Chicago ORD 21:03 → DCA 00:14 +1AA 514 8h 46m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962 8h 52m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:00 → IAH 17:12UA 497 2h 38m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 59m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → SLC 12:45 → ORD 16:54UA 1382 2h 51m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 8h 09m 94% 70%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 14:05 → MDW 18:05WN 3750 2h 40m Chicago MDW 20:45 → DCA 23:44WN 2406 7h 39m 99% 70%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 09:52 → SEA 10:21AS 719 3h 25m Seattle SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59AS 2 10h 07m 100% 66%
FrontierDetails → SLC 11:31 → DEN 13:10F9 3220 3h 18m Denver DEN 16:28 → DCA 21:59F9 690 8h 28m 97% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SLC 13:28 → ORD 18:02AA 2616 1h 00m Chicago ORD 19:02 → DCA 22:14AA 1187 6h 46m 73% 56%
AmericanDetails → SLC 14:00 → DFW 17:50AA 2613 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752 6h 59m 71% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON