Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1214 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1214 SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1456 SLC 16:44 → DFW 20:23 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1214 American Flight history →	SLC 05:00	DFW 08:46	8%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 2798 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:55	DFW 11:37	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 2604 American Flight history →	SLC 07:00	DFW 10:44	12%	5%	1.8%	85%
AA 644 American Flight history →	SLC 07:06	DFW 10:53	13%	5%	1.8%	86%
AA 2195 American Flight history →	SLC 08:00	DFW 11:47	13%	5%	2.3%	89%
DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:50	DFW 13:30	15%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 2811 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:50	DFW 17:33	21%	5%	0.6%	77%
F9 3278 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 21:04	DFW 00:48	23%	14%	0.9%	76%
AA 2607 American Flight history →	SLC 11:18	DFW 15:06	23%	7%	1.6%	80%
AA 1878 American	SLC 11:35	DFW 15:13	24%	7%	2.1%	no record
DL 2796 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:40	DFW 21:23	25%	8%	0.6%	77%
AA 2613 American Flight history →	SLC 14:00	DFW 17:50	33%	9%	1.8%	55%
AA 2594 American Flight history →	SLC 16:42	DFW 20:30	33%	10%	1.3%	41%
AA 1871 American	SLC 14:03	DFW 17:46	35%	8%	2.3%	no record
AA 1456 American Flight history →	SLC 16:44	DFW 20:23	39%	10%	1.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON