Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:06 am at Sacramento)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 3895 Southwest	SMF 23:05	BNA 05:16	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3759 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 23:05	BNA 05:10	15%	3%	0.5%	78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 24m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BNA 13:31UA 355	6h 31m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	SMF 08:05 → SLC 10:40WN 3827	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 12:15 → BNA 16:34WN 1381	6h 29m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 16m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	SMF 18:45 → SAN 20:20WN 4293	2h 20m San Diego	SAN 22:40 → BNA 04:45 +1WN 3480	8h 00m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15WN 3773	1h 08m Denver	DEN 10:23 → BNA 13:56WN 1545	6h 01m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	6h 37m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	SMF 10:25 → STL 16:05WN 920	1h 45m St Louis	STL 17:50 → BNA 19:07WN 753	6h 42m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	SMF 06:00 → ONT 07:20WN 4911	2h 45m Ontario	ONT 10:05 → BNA 15:54WN 4996	7h 54m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782	55m Houston	HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:38WN 2014	6h 38m	53%	41%
Southwest Details →	SMF 16:40 → SAN 18:10WN 4292	55m San Diego	SAN 19:05 → BNA 01:01 +1WN 3625	6h 21m	38%	25%
Southwest Details →	SMF 15:15 → SAN 16:45WN 4774	50m San Diego	SAN 17:35 → BNA 23:35WN 3479	6h 20m	31%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON