Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:25 am at Sacramento)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2319 Southwest	SMF 08:10	SBA 09:37	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3601 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:45	SBA 09:00	5%	1%	0.5%	96%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	SMF 07:30 → SAN 09:00WN 1460	3h 45m San Diego	SAN 12:45 → SBA 13:52WN 3041	6h 22m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	SMF 14:55 → PDX 16:27AS 1600	1h 21m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon	5h 09m	92%	82%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	4h 52m	91%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	86%	78%
Southwest Details →	SMF 17:55 → LAS 19:25WN 4116	3h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 22:45 → SBA 00:11 +1WN 4612	6h 16m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	SMF 16:00 → DEN 19:20WN 1001	2h 15m Denver	DEN 21:35 → SBA 23:15WN 1765	7h 15m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	SMF 17:37 → SAN 19:21AS 3036 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m San Diego	SAN 22:32 → SBA 23:44AS 2175 · flown by Horizon	6h 07m	99%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53UA 5248 · flown by SkyWest	57m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest	3h 31m	62%	46%
Alaska Details →	SMF 10:13 → SAN 11:50AS 2101 · flown by Horizon	59m San Diego	SAN 12:49 → SBA 14:02AS 2177 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	55%	33%
Alaska Details →	SMF 20:01 → SAN 21:45AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	47m San Diego	SAN 22:32 → SBA 23:44AS 2175 · flown by Horizon	3h 43m	33%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON