tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:02 am at Santa Ana)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 10:32, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:32 → DFW 15:40AA 2114 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:29 → HOU 20:06AA 3391 · flown by Envoy 7h 34m 93% 74%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 10:55 → DEN 14:10WN 187 2h 00m Denver DEN 16:10 → HOU 19:36WN 1599 6h 41m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:25 → DFW 15:39AA 2680 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy 7h 28m 91% 68%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 10:05 → OAK 11:30WN 3849 2h 25m Oakland OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244 7h 35m 100% 67%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 10:20 → SMF 11:45WN 1105 2h 20m Sacramento SMF 14:05 → HOU 19:49WN 3917 7h 29m 100% 63%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 11:50 → AUS 16:50WN 345 3h 55m Austin AUS 20:45 → HOU 21:50WN 4192 8h 00m 100% 63%
AmericanDetails → SNA 14:24 → DFW 19:44AA 2684 2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 7h 32m 92% 61%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 11:50 → PHX 13:20WN 4944 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 15:05 → HOU 19:43WN 1874 5h 53m 100% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 56m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 7h 36m 70% 45%
AmericanDetails → SNA 16:34 → DFW 21:49AA 2688 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 5h 22m 52% 34%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 18:30 → PHX 19:55WN 3088 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 20:55 → HOU 01:34 +1WN 3420 5h 04m 65% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON