tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 37m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51UA 2657 3h 03m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 10h 19m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:00 → SFO 08:31UA 1604 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 12:22 → MIA 21:05UA 1458 11h 05m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 3h 51m Chicago ORD 17:59 → MIA 22:20AA 2690 11h 35m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 1h 12m Chicago ORD 18:05 → MIA 22:27UA 2180 8h 50m 89% 72%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 40m 92% 72%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 24m Denver DEN 16:07 → MIA 22:11UA 445 8h 51m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → SNA 19:32 → PHX 20:57AA 2685 2h 08m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 7h 56m 86% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:32 → DFW 15:41AA 2114 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308 7h 03m 70% 42%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:56 → DFW 17:12AA 2672 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:10 → MIA 22:05AA 2206 7h 09m 67% 40%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:55 → DFW 18:14AA 2669 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:12 → MIA 22:59AA 1824 7h 04m 66% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON