Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4935 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4935 SNA 07:00 → OAK 08:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 375 SNA 14:30 → OAK 15:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4935 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 07:00	OAK 08:40	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3848 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 08:00	OAK 09:25	5%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 4040 Southwest	SNA 07:16	OAK 08:47	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3849 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 10:05	OAK 11:30	9%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 4986 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 12:20	OAK 13:45	16%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 312 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 20:30	OAK 22:00	16%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 3853 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:35	OAK 20:00	22%	6%	0.6%	45%
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 16:15	OAK 17:35	23%	6%	0.6%	60%
WN 375 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 14:30	OAK 15:50	25%	7%	0.5%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON